Spatial yield estimates of fast‐growing willow plantations for energy based on climatic variables in northern Europe

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Spatial yield estimates of fast‐growing willow plantations for energy based on climatic variables in northern Europe 作者： Blas Mola-Yudego 1,2 Johannes Rahlf 1 Rasmus Astrup 1 Ioannis Dimitriou 3 作者单位： 1. Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway 2. School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland , Joensuu, Finland 3. Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Uppsala, Sweden 提交时间： 2016-05-04 摘要: Spatially accurate and reliable estimates from fast-growing plantations are a key factor for planning energy supply. This study aimed to estimate the yield of biomass from short rotation willow plantations in northern Europe. The data were based on harvesting records from 1790 commercial plantations in Sweden, grouped into three ad hoc categories: low, middle and high performance. The predictors included climatic variables, allowing the spatial extrapolation to nearby countries. The modeling and spatialization of the estimates used boosted regression trees, a method based on machine learning. The average RMSE for the final models selected was 0.33, 0.39 and 1.91 (corresponding to R2 = 0.77, 0.88 and 0.45), for the low, medium and high performance categories, respectively. The models were then applied to obtain 1×1 km yield estimates in the rest of Sweden, as well as for Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Baltic coast of Germany and Poland. The results demonstrated a large regional variation. For the first rotation under high performance conditions, the country averages were as follows: >7 odt ha−1 yr−1 in the Baltic coast of Germany, >6 odt ha−1 yr−1 in Denmark, >5 odt ha−1 yr−1 in the Baltic coast of Poland and between 4–5 odt ha−1 yr−1 in the rest. The results of this approach indicate that they can provide faster and more accurate predictions than previous modeling approaches and can offer interesting possibilities in the field of yield modeling. bioenergy biofuels biomass boosted regression trees climatic restrictions energy crops predictive models short rotation willow yield maps 期刊： GCB Bioenergy 分类： 生物学 >> 植物学 >> 植物生态学和植物地理学 引用： ChinaXiv:201605.00509 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:201605.00509V1 ) doi:10.12074/201605.00509 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.201605.00509.V1 推荐引用方式： Blas Mola-Yudego,Johannes Rahlf,Rasmus Astrup,Ioannis Dimitriou.(2016).Spatial yield estimates of fast‐growing willow plantations for energy based on climatic variables in northern Europe.GCB Bioenergy.[ChinaXiv:201605.00509] 版本历史 [V1] 2016-05-04 09:16:36 ChinaXiv:201605.00509V1 下载全文